Development and Validation of a Predictive Model for Hypoglycemia after Endoscopic Polypectomy

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jmhs.202605407

Author(s)

Yingjun Zhang1, Peili Xu2,*, Mengyu Hu1, Lijuan Yang1, Lili E1

Affiliation(s)

1Maanshan People's Hospital, Maanshan, Anhui, China 2Hefei First People's Hospital, Hefei, Anhui, China *Corresponding Author

Abstract

This study aimed to identify factors associated with hypoglycemia among patients following endoscopic colorectal polypectomy and to construct and validate a risk prediction model. A convenience sampling technique was employed to enroll 651 patients who had undergone this procedure at our hospital between January 2025 and July 2026. On the basis of blood glucose test findings, the enrolled patients were assigned to either a hypoglycemic group or a non-hypoglycemic group. Logistic regression was subsequently performed to identify factors associated with postoperative hypoglycemia, and a prediction model was then established. The receiver operating characteristic curve, Hosmer-Lemeshow test, and calibration plot were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model, and an internal validation group was used for internal validation of the model. Among the 651 patients, 66 developed hypoglycemia, with an incidence rate of 10.14%. Multivariate logistic regression analysis demonstrated that a history of polyp treatment (OR=0.337), fructosamine (OR=1.012), AIS (OR=2.515), duration of postoperative fasting (OR=8.305), titanium clip count (OR=2.034), and length of preoperative dietary restriction (OR=5.906) independently predicted hypoglycemia in individuals who underwent endoscopic excision of colorectal polyps. The model achieved good discriminatory performance (AUC = 0.885), and its calibration was satisfactory according to the Hosmer–Lemeshow test (χ² = 4.033, P = 0.854). For internal validation, the model yielded an AUC of 0.876. The calibration curve further indicated that the predicted probabilities closely matched the ideal reference line. The predictive model developed in the present study demonstrated satisfactory performance, providing a useful reference for the clinical prevention of hypoglycemia in individuals who underwent endoscopic resection of colorectal polyps.

Keywords

Endoscopic Polypectomy; Hypoglycemia; Influencing Factors; Model Construction; Validation

References

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