How Do Perceived Promotion Opportunities Influence Employee Turnover Intention? Evidence from Structural Equation Modeling and Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62517/jse.202611405

Author(s)

Yu Zhong¹, Ziling Tang2,*

Affiliation(s)

1School of Management, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, Shandong, China 2College of Economics and Management, South China Agricultural University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, China *Corresponding Author

Abstract

As workforce mobility increases and career advancement becomes a growing priority for employees, organizations are increasingly evaluated not only by the rewards they provide but also by the career opportunities they make available. Among these opportunities, employees' perceptions of promotion prospects have become an important indicator of an organization's commitment to long-term development and internal career mobility. Drawing on data from 1262 respondents in the 2021 China Employer-Employee Linked Survey, this study combines structural equation modeling (SEM) with fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA). SEM is employed to identify the psychological processes linking perceived promotion opportunities to employee turnover intention, whereas fsQCA is used to uncover alternative combinations of conditions that give rise to high employee turnover intention. The SEM results show that stronger perceived promotion opportunities are associated with lower employee turnover intention. This relationship operates through two parallel psychological mechanisms—organizational sense of belonging and career self-drive—with the mediating role of organizational sense of belonging proving more substantial. The moderated mediation analysis shows that trade union service quality reinforces the positive effects of perceived promotion opportunities on both organizational sense of belonging and career self-drive. The fsQCA findings show that high employee turnover intention reflects multiple configurations rather than a single condition. Rather, it emerges through multiple configurational pathways involving weak organizational sense of belonging, limited perceived promotion opportunities, low career self-drive, inadequate organizational support, individual human capital characteristics, and job demands. These findings suggest that employee retention depends on more than the existence of formal promotion systems. Greater attention should instead be directed toward how promotion opportunities are perceived by employees, together with efforts to strengthen organizational sense of belonging, cultivate career self-drive, and improve labor-relations governance.

Keywords

Perceived Promotion Opportunities; Employee Turnover Intention; Organizational Sense of Belonging; Career Self-Drive; Trade Union Service Quality; fsQCA

References

[1]Geng XL, Geng RJ. Structural causes of quiet quitting among China's new-generation employees and organizational countermeasures. Journal of Nanjing Normal University (Social Sciences), 2025, (5): 145–156. [2]Zhu F, Yue MQ, Zhang JX. The influence of the consistency between organizational career management and human resource management strength on employee turnover intention: The mediating role of career satisfaction and the moderating role of employer branding. Journal of Central University of Finance and Economics, 2021, (12): 105–118. [3]Weng QX, Xi YM. Career growth and turnover intention: The moderating roles of career commitment and perceived opportunities. Nankai Business Review, 2010, 13(2): 119–131. [4]March JG, Simon HA. Organizations. New York: John Wiley & Sons, 1993. [5]Chen Y, Li S, Chen Y. The impact of overwork on turnover intention: A perspective based on health risk perception. Chinese Journal of Clinical Psychology, 2023, 31(1): 208–212. [6]Zhao HJ, Xi YP. Emotional labor and employee turnover intention: The roles of emotional exhaustion and perceived organizational support. Research on Economics and Management, 2017, 38(2): 80–86. [7]Li YB, Cai YH. The impact of job resources on turnover intention among new-generation employees: The moderating role of social class. Soft Science, 2021, 35(2): 90–95. [8]Wang Z, Chen JH. A meta-analysis of the effects of perceived organizational support on turnover intention and job performance. Journal of Donghua University (Natural Science), 2021, 47(6): 124–132. [9]Zhang SH, Liu ZY. A meta-analysis of the relationship between organizational identification and turnover intention. Acta Psychologica Sinica, 2016, 48(12): 1561–1573. [10]Meng L, Li DQ, Niu L. Best practices in job embeddedness: The key to improving employee retention. Tsinghua Business Review, 2024, (10): 42–49. [11]Liao JQ, Jing ZS, Liu WX, Wang XD. The impact of limited promotion opportunities on employee job performance: The mediating roles of intrinsic motivation and perceived insider status. Industrial Engineering and Management, 2015, 20(1): 15–21. [12]Zhou X, Zhao BL. The impact of limited promotion opportunities on in-role performance among knowledge workers: The roles of perceived insider status and knowledge-sharing climate. Science and Technology Management Research, 2019, 39(6): 142–147. [13]Zheng ZG, Du ZY, Huang JC, Hu Q. Can internal promotion reduce voluntary turnover among key employees? Evidence from China's mutual fund industry. Investment Research, 2025, 44(1): 4–34. [14]Yang KF, Yang XM, Xu PY. Can professional title promotion and vocational training reduce rural teachers' turnover intention? Evidence on effectiveness, group heterogeneity, and underlying mechanisms. Basic Education, 2023, 20(6): 46–57. [15]Zhang Y, Chen WQ, Shen JZ. Can employee organizational sense of belonging enhance firms' innovation performance? Evidence from a questionnaire survey of high-tech enterprises in Guizhou Province. Research on Financial Management, 2026, (1): 58–64. [16]An D, He L, Wang YJ, et al. The impact of person-job fit on job satisfaction among employees in state-owned enterprises: The mediating role of organizational sense of belonging. Chinese Journal of Human Resource Management, 2025, (12): 48–59. [17]Chen LL, Jiang XH, Wang ML. Mitigating turnover intention resulting from perceived overqualification: The three-way interaction among organizational sense of belonging and need to belong. Management Review, 2024, 36(6): 169–182. [18]Hu Y, Ji ZY, Zhang DH. The impact of workplace ostracism on turnover intention: The serial mediating roles of anger and organizational sense of belonging. Chinese Journal of Clinical Psychology, 2023, 31(5): 1199–1203. [19]Wang M, Dong YL. Exploring the dimensions of self-drive among knowledge workers and scale development. Science and Technology Management Research, 2026, 46(3): 94–101. [20]Hu EH, Zhao JY, Shan HM, Jiang KS. The impact of the coupling between human resource management practices and union practices on employees' career growth. Journal of Management, 2023, 36(4): 62–74. [21]Jiang J, Yang BY. Leader-member exchange, intrinsic motivation, and employee creativity: The moderating role of job variety. Science of Science and Management of S.& T., 2014, 35(1): 165–172. [22]Blau P. Exchange and power in social life. London: Routledge, 2017. [23]Rousseau D. Psychological contracts in organizations: Understanding written and unwritten agreements. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage Publications, 1995. [24]Deci EL, Ryan RM. The "what" and "why" of goal pursuits: Human needs and the self-determination of behavior. Psychological Inquiry, 2000, 11(4): 227–268. [25]Wu LW, Yang F, Tian YX, et al. Outcomes of job embeddedness and their theoretical explanations. Advances in Psychological Science, 2021, 29(5): 906–920. [26]Yang CJ, Ma QH, Zeng XF. Predicting turnover from the perspective of retention: A review of job embeddedness research. Nankai Business Review, 2010, 13(2): 105–118, 131. [27]Zhao CH, Zhai XT, Cai T. The influence of union practices on employees' organizational citizenship behavior: The roles of psychological contract and high-performance human resource practices. Business Management Journal, 2021, 43(3): 194–208. [28]Zhou L, Liu MW, Li M, Lin MW. Union commitment in the Chinese context: Scale development and its predictive effects on organizational citizenship behavior and turnover intention. Human Resources Development of China, 2019, 36: 63–76. [29]Cheng XL, Xue S, Chen HH, et al. A multilevel study of responsible leadership in reducing employees' counterproductive work behavior and turnover intention. Chinese Journal of Management, 2023, 20(10): 1468–1476. [30]Li ZD, Guo SS. How does job stress affect employee turnover intention? The perspective of self-efficacy. Journal of East China University of Science and Technology (Social Science Edition), 2021, 36(2): 69–85. [31]Gao YY, Bian YJ. Professional qualifications or social ties? An analysis of the pathways through which social capital influences promotion opportunities. Seeking Truth, 2025, (1): 176–187. [32]Lang HG. External pay dispersion, firm growth capability, and executives' voluntary turnover. Communication of Finance and Accounting, 2023, (22): 59–62, 68. [33]Liu JK, He XB, Zhou WX. Union welfare support and employees' fertility intention: Evidence from matched employer–employee survey data. Population and Development, 2023, 29(6): 122–136. [34]Tang CQ, Dong ZQ. Can unions promote a win-win outcome for employees and firms? Theory and empirical evidence from matched employer–employee data. Academic Research, 2020, (1): 94–102.